The three categories that go short.
Paper, printer toner and lever arch files. Every October. Year-end reporting drives the paper spike, tax-return season drives the toner spike, and audit preparation drives the filing spike. All three peak in the same three-week window, roughly the third week of October through the first week of November. Suppliers know this and the mills price for it — a 5% seasonal uplift is normal; this year we're seeing 8% on A4 80gsm because the pulp cost feed moved.
If you buy in this window, you pay the peak. If you buy the last week of September or the second week of November, you don't. The best restock date for paper this year, based on the last four years of our own purchase data, is the week starting 22 September. For toner it's the week after — buyers hold off until October.
The four that go long.
Post-it notes, whiteboard markers, letter-size envelopes (DL, C4, C5), and desk-top diaries. All four have huge autumn shelves in every retail catalogue because that's when consumer buyers replenish. Office demand doesn't follow. Trade prices on these categories drop 4–7% in October because suppliers are chasing the retail-adjacent buyer who buys once a year. If your office uses them, this is the month.
The diary category is the extreme case. New-year diaries are priced against Waterstones and WHSmith seasonal displays. By November they're half-price on the trade side, by January they're remaindered. Buy them from us at any point between now and mid-December and you save meaningfully; before or after that window, you pay closer to sticker.
Why the paper mills always misprice November.
Pulp prices are set on a quarterly rolling cycle. The Q4 quote arrives in early October and the mills use it to set the full quarter's wholesale price. But paper demand doesn't sit flat across the quarter — it spikes in the middle four weeks and drops off a cliff in late November. The mills price to the average, which means they undercharge in the peak (which is why the trade market can absorb 8% uplift and the retail market can't) and overcharge in the trough. If you can hold your paper order to the last week of November, you'll pay 4–6% under the sticker price we quoted a month earlier. We honour that when it happens — reply to your order confirmation and we'll re-run the quote if the wholesale moved before your delivery date.
The practical version.
- This week. Restock A4 copier paper. Two to three months' supply. Prices are still on the Q3 quote and they go up on 1 October.
- Early October. Restock toner. Whatever you think you need to Christmas plus one full set on the shelf.
- Late October. Restock filing — lever arch files, dividers, punched pockets. Prices lift in the second week of November on the audit-season demand.
- Any time before mid-December. Diaries for the new year, Post-it notes, whiteboard markers. All on their long side of the pricing curve.
If you'd like a specific quote against your last four quarters of orders — no obligation — reply to your last order email or drop us a line and we'll run it against your actual volume.